⚡ Quick Summary
- IDC, Omdia, and Gartner forecast 10-12% PC shipment decline in 2026
- Severe memory shortage dubbed RAMageddon is the primary driver
- AI data centre demand competing with PC makers for limited memory supply
- Budget PC segment hit hardest; businesses should plan procurement early
What Happened
Three of the world's leading technology research firms — IDC, Omdia, and Gartner — have converged on a grim forecast for the global PC market: shipments will decline between 10 and 12 percent in 2026, driven primarily by a severe memory and storage shortage that the industry has dubbed "RAMageddon." The consensus represents a dramatic downward revision from earlier, more optimistic projections.
IDC projects an 11.3 percent decline, Omdia forecasts 12 percent, and Gartner estimates 10 percent. All three firms point to the same root cause: surging memory costs driven by supply chain disruptions and manufacturing capacity constraints that are rippling through the entire PC ecosystem. The era of bargain-priced PCs and tablets, analysts warn, is effectively over.
The memory shortage has its origins in a convergence of factors including increased demand from AI data centres consuming vast quantities of high-bandwidth memory, production challenges at major DRAM and NAND manufacturers, and geopolitical tensions affecting semiconductor supply chains. What began as price increases for memory modules has cascaded into a fundamental constraint on how many PCs can be built — and at what price.
Background and Context
The PC industry has experienced cyclical booms and busts for decades, but the current downturn has a distinctly different character. Previous declines were typically demand-driven — consumers and businesses simply chose not to upgrade. This time, the constraint is on the supply side. Manufacturers want to build PCs, and in many cases customers want to buy them, but the economics of memory pricing make it impossible to deliver affordable machines.
Memory prices have been climbing steadily since late 2025, with DDR5 module costs increasing by 40 to 60 percent depending on capacity and specification. For PC manufacturers operating on thin margins — particularly in the budget and mid-range segments — these cost increases are devastating. A laptop that could be profitably sold for $500 a year ago may now need to retail for $650 or more to maintain the same margin, pushing it out of reach for price-sensitive buyers.
The AI boom has exacerbated the situation. Data centre operators building out infrastructure for large language models and AI training workloads are consuming enormous quantities of HBM (high-bandwidth memory) chips. Since HBM and consumer DRAM share manufacturing capacity and raw materials, the AI industry's insatiable appetite for memory is directly competing with PC production.
Why This Matters
An 11 percent decline in global PC shipments isn't just a number on an analyst's slide deck — it represents real consequences for businesses, consumers, and the broader technology ecosystem. Fewer PCs shipped means fewer new machines in offices and homes, which in turn affects software adoption cycles, IT refresh planning, and the competitive dynamics among hardware vendors.
For businesses planning technology refreshes, the message is clear: expect to pay more and potentially wait longer for new hardware. Companies that have been deferring PC upgrades may find that the longer they wait, the more expensive replacement becomes. This creates a strategic tension between delaying purchases in hopes of price relief and acting now before costs climb further.
The ripple effects extend to the software ecosystem as well. When PC upgrades slow, users remain on older hardware longer, which influences decisions about operating system support, application compatibility, and security patching. For organisations managing their software assets — whether that's a genuine Windows 11 key for a new deployment or maintaining existing licences — hardware availability directly impacts migration timelines.
Industry Impact
The RAMageddon-driven decline will hit PC manufacturers unevenly. Companies focused on the budget segment — where memory costs represent the largest proportion of total bill-of-materials — will suffer most. Premium brands that can absorb or pass through cost increases to less price-sensitive customers will be relatively insulated.
This dynamic could accelerate market consolidation. Smaller PC brands with limited pricing power and thin balance sheets may struggle to survive an extended period of supply constraints and margin compression. The largest manufacturers — Lenovo, HP, Dell, and Apple — have the scale and supplier relationships to secure preferential memory allocation, potentially widening their market share advantages.
For channel partners and retailers, the decline means fewer units to sell and potentially higher per-unit margins as discounting becomes less aggressive. IT resellers should prepare for conversations with customers about total cost of ownership, emphasising that investing in quality hardware paired with legitimate software like an affordable Microsoft Office licence delivers better long-term value than bargain-hunting in a constrained market.
Expert Perspective
The alignment among IDC, Omdia, and Gartner is itself significant. These firms use different methodologies, data sources, and analytical frameworks, yet they've arrived at remarkably similar conclusions. When all three major analysts agree that the market will contract by roughly 10 to 12 percent, it suggests the underlying data is unambiguous.
The real question is duration. If the memory shortage persists into 2027 — as some supply chain analysts predict — the cumulative impact on the PC industry could reshape its competitive landscape for years. Conversely, if manufacturing capacity comes online faster than expected, pent-up demand could drive a sharp recovery.
What This Means for Businesses
Practical guidance for business leaders is straightforward: audit your hardware fleet now, identify machines that will need replacement in the next 12 to 18 months, and begin procurement conversations early. Waiting for prices to drop is a risky strategy when three independent research firms are telling you the supply crunch isn't going away soon.
Businesses should also consider extending the useful life of existing hardware through software optimisation. Ensuring machines run genuine, properly licensed software from sources like enterprise productivity software providers can improve performance and security on older hardware, buying time until the market stabilises.
Key Takeaways
- IDC, Omdia, and Gartner all forecast PC shipment declines of 10-12% in 2026
- The primary driver is severe memory and storage shortages dubbed "RAMageddon"
- AI data centre demand is competing with PC manufacturers for limited memory supply
- Budget and mid-range PC segments will be hardest hit by rising component costs
- Businesses should accelerate hardware procurement planning rather than waiting for price relief
- The shortage could persist into 2027, potentially reshaping the competitive landscape
Looking Ahead
The PC industry's near-term trajectory depends heavily on how quickly memory manufacturers can expand production capacity. New fab construction takes years, not months, which suggests the supply constraints driving RAMageddon will persist well beyond 2026. For businesses and consumers alike, the days of $400 laptops may be numbered — and planning accordingly is no longer optional.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is RAMageddon?
RAMageddon is the industry term for the severe memory and storage shortage affecting the global PC market in 2026. It's driven by manufacturing constraints, AI data centre demand consuming high-bandwidth memory, and geopolitical supply chain disruptions.
How much will PC prices increase?
Memory costs have risen 40-60% depending on specification, which is forcing PC manufacturers to raise retail prices significantly, particularly in the budget and mid-range segments. A laptop that cost $500 a year ago may now need to sell for $650 or more.
Should businesses buy PCs now or wait?
Major analysts suggest the shortage will persist into 2027, so waiting for price drops is risky. Businesses should audit their hardware needs now and begin procurement conversations early to secure allocation.